Mobile internet firse hone waala hai mehenga?

 AIrtel ke badhte Losses se kaise badal sakta hai India ke telecom Sector ka Future?


India ke Telecom sector me ek bahut bada shakeup hua tha jab December 2015 me Reliance Jio mobile Network launch hua tha. 

Jio ne ek aisa unique business model chuna hai ke unke competitors ko kuch pata nahi chala ke kaha unke pairon ke neeche se zameen hi sarak gayi. Lekin aaj ke din me khade hoke pe poochna galat nahi hoga ke kya jo hua, wo India ke Telecom sector ke hisaab se sahi tha? Kyun aaj hum agar dekhne jaye, to 10 players waali India ke Telecom sector me aaj bas 2.5 players reh gaye hai. Sabse bada Jio, uske baad Airtel ek, aur Vodafone Idea ikatthe milkar bhi 0.5 ke barabar hi baaki hai. 

Ye dekhne waali baat hogi ke kya aane waale dino me Vodafone Idea bach payega? Ya for koi dossri bade company ko bech ke market se beizzati ke saath exit karega. Airtel ki baat karein, to Sunil Mittal ki is company ka bhi haal kuch zyada accha nahi hai.

 Mamala ye hai ke December 2019 me 42% ka Tariff Hike karnewaali Airtel ishara kiya hai ki wo fir se tariff badhayenge. Kya reason hai iska? Kya Airtel khud chahti hai ki log uske network chor ke chale jai? Ya fir kya yehi logical step hai aur Reliance Jio bhi iske baad apna tariff badhayega? India ki population, jo Tiktok, Sharechat, whatsapp, facebook forwards ke sahare Pandemic aur Economic slowdown ko guzarne ki koshish kar rahi thi, kya usse ye choti si suvidha bhi cheen li jayegi? Mera analysis jaan ne ke liye video ko end tak dekhie aur channel ko subscribe kijiye, aapka analysis bolne ke liye fatafat comment section me jaake likhiye ki aapka kya sochna hai is baare me.

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Airtel ko Q1 Results me jhatka - public ko milega fadka


Airtel ko Q1 me 15,933 crore ka loss hua hai, ye lagatar 5th quarter hia jisme Airtel ko loss ka saamna karna pada hai. Airtel ka Average RPU - Revenue per user 157 INr tha Q1 2020 me. Ye number pichle quarter me 154 INR tha. Matlab thoda sa improve ment hua hai. Lekin Airtel ke CEO Gopal Vittal ka kehnga hai ki 157 se nah hoga, unko ARPU 200 tak karna hai. 

Unka ye bhi maan na hai ki ARPU 300 INR hona chahiye market economics, inflation and costing ko dimaag me rakhke. Ab chaliye, ek chota sa mathematics ka game khelte hain, khelunga main, aap bas comment kariyega ke ye khel ka result aapko chaukata hai ya nahin.

 

Aaj main 449 ka recharge karta hu 84 days ka, Airtel ki baat kar raha hu. Isme mujhe unlimited calls and daily 1.5 Gb ka data mil raha hai. Ab isme airtel ka average RPU - 157 hai. Unko karna hai 200. Jiska matlab hua ki aapka jo bhi plan ho, usme 1.27% ka increment ho jayega. Samajh lijiye baat ko. Matlab, mera 449 ka recharge 572 ka hojayega. Matlab 122 Rupay ka increment, per mahina 40 Rupay ke asspass. Ye number abhi utna bura nahi dikh raha hoga shayad. Hai bhi nahi, lekin iska implication kya hoga ye bataunga aapko, video pe bane rahe.

 

Ab aate hain 300 ARPU par, 157 se 300 karne ke liye present tariff ko 1.9 times badhana padega. Matlab mera 449 ka recharge 857 ka ho jayega. Matlab har mahine ka lagbhag 150 Rupay increment. To har mahine jo aapka mobile kharcha 250 hua karta tha, wo kareeb kareeb double ho jayega. Abhi kaisa lag raha hai aapko? Aage dekhte hain.

 

Jio ne isi quarter me 183 Crore ka growth darj kiya hai, 2520 crore ka net profit ke saath. Unka Average RPU 140.3 INR hai. Aur isme bhi unko 7.3 % ka growth mila hai aur wo isse kaafi khush hai. Ab samajhte hain dynamics ko.

 

Jio ke ARPU kam hai lekin volume bahut zyada hai. Volume ka growth bhi bahut zyada hai. Upar se Jio ne jab apne plans announce kiye the to pehla 3 mahine bilkul free data diya tha logo ko. To unke liye ye bahut bada growth hai. Doosri taraf, Airtel ka user volume kam ho raha hai. Airtel ke loss ka bada reason hai AGR verdict me compensation amount. Usne Q1 ke result me bhi 10,000 Crore ke ass pass ka amount alag rakhha hai, AGR payment ke provision ke liye.

 

Monopoly me marega kaun?



Agar Vodafone ko bahar nikal diya gaya, agar Airtel ka business kam hota gaya, unke Tariffs and subsequent poor service quality ke wajah se,t o market me monopoly hoga Jio ka. Samajhna important hai ke Jio ne monopoly kar kaise liya. ISke baare me kai unconfirmed reports hai. Ek fact ye hai ke RIL ke doosre business itne profitable the ke Mukesh Ambani pehle 3 mahine free service deke bhi market me bane reh paye. 

Free data ka matlab kuch aisa tha jaise kisisne hotel khola hai 3 mahine free of cost kisiko bhi rehne dega, aur koi bhi aa saktahai. Kuch logo ka kehna hai ki Jio ko Indian Governement ke taraf se backing mila tha, BSNL ke existing infrastructure ko use karne ka permission diya gaya tha jisse BSNL ko koi bhi fayda nahi pahucha hai, ulta BSNL band hone ke kagaar par hain. Uske baad dossra bada dhakka tha AGR issue me verdict, hjaha par non core income ko bhi company ke net income me pakda gaya aur unko penalize kiya gaya india ke Telecom authority dwara. 

Ye bahut bada jhatka tha jisse addhe competitors nikal gaye. 4G ka cost and equipment afford na karpane se kuch competitor nikal gaye. Ab aayega 5G jiska spectrum cost 5000 Crore bola jaa raha hai. Airtel ne kaha hai ki ye bahut zyada hai aur unfesaible hai.

 

Is tarah chalta raha to monopoly hi hoga, aur monopoly kabhi democracy ke liye acchi baat nahi ho sakti. Consumers will be at the mercy of the only company or zyada se zyada duopoly hoga.

 Fir marenge aap main aur hum sab common insaan. Kyun ki Set top box ke jagah OTT services ne le li hai, aapka cable ka bill aata tha mahine ka 400, OTT ka subscription milake abhi araam se 800/900 hoga. Aur alag alag series alag alag platforms me aati hai, ek nahi dekha to doston se baat karne ka topic nahi mil payega, to FOMO, matlab fear of missing out ke wajah se bill bahdta hi rahega, saath me doosre essential services bhi mehengi hoti jayegi, kyun sast to kabhi hota nahi hai. 

Isme agar economy slowdown me aur bhi jaati hai to income shrink hoga, to demand aur kam hoga, aur ye cyclic effect poora desh ke economy aur share market ke liye ghatak saabit hogi. Agar sarkar isko tackle kart paati hai public ke upar pressure kam karke, companies ko thoda level playing ground deke, competition create karke, to hi demand paida ho sakta hai firse. Warna humare liye kaafi mushkil waqt aane waala hai.


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